Yankees Courting Uncertainty: CJ Wilson vs. Yu Darvish
73While the Major League baseball off-season has been relatively quiet out of the gate, there are a plethora of rumors and scenarios surfacing of late. One story thus far--if it's a story at all--is the reiteration of the New York Yankees desire for another front line starter. However, the free agent market is quite barren and Brian Cashman is hesitant to decimate the farm system for a middle-of-the-rotation type starter, as teams refuse to part with their young aces. The only other viable option for the Bombers is to try and lure one of the few free agents that are available to New York with a overly lucrative contracts.
Recent reports reveal that the Braves have enormous interest in Eduardo Nunez, The Yankees young shortstop, but are looking for a whole heap of prospects from the Yankees for their ace, Jair Jurrjens. For the time being, you can also rule out any deal including slugger Jesus Montero--that is unless somehow Felix Hernandez or Tim Lincecum find their way onto the trading block, which is a bold suggestion. So what does the franchise with the such prodigal resources to do? CJ Wilson and Yu Darvish, two of this year's most most coveted free agents, remain at the top of the Yankees wish list, but each provide obstacles for their potential suitors.
In Wilson's case, there is no question that he is a top flight starter in the majors, as he has posted elite numbers over the last couple of years. His transformation from reliever to starter has brought the Texas Rangers high returns (two World Series appearances in the last two years) and Wilson is establishing himself expeditiously. Over the past two seasons, Wilson has logged 427 1/3 innings, while posting a 3.14 ERA to go along with his 31 wins. His delivery, demeanor, and "stuff" are qualities the Yankees brass should be familiar with, as Wilson compares similarly to Jon Lester. Moreover, his durability is a desired quality, as he has made 33 and 34 starts in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The question for Wilson is not whether or not he will succeed in the regular season, but will he put his past struggles in the postseason behind him and emerge as "big time" pitcher. While 2010 and 2011 saw the Texas Rangers reaching the World Series, Wilson struggled acutely, posting a 4.82 ERA in the six combined series'. His 52 1/3 innings pitched is substantial sample and New York is not a place where you want to struggle. The Yankees must really contemplate long and hard if they want to bring in a big-money free agent and have him underachieve in October (see: Mark Teixiera). Wilson's contract is another issue, as it is reported that he is seeking $120 million on a six-year deal. Yes, Wilson is a top starter, but no way is he worth $20 million per season, and I would be hard-pressed to believe the Yankees feel any differently. Unless his price falls below the $100 million mark, do not expect the Yankees to remain interested, or even make him an offer.
Honestly, I have always been skeptical with bringing in free agent pitchers from Japan, and that was reaffirmed with the Daisuke Matsusaka sweepstakes in 2007. Not only were the Red Sox required to post a negotiation fee in excess of $50 million, but they also had to surrender a six-year, $52 million contract to a pitcher who lacked experience among Major League Baseball's elite. His drop off in the last three seasons is due to his plethora of injuries and his ineffectiveness to stay in games when healthy, not due to his reported overexertion in Japan. I preface this with the argument concerning Yu Darvish because it is a similar situation; one that may see the Yankees paying astronomically for a player they really know nothing about (see: Kei Igawa). Darvish has won 58 games over his short four year career with the Nippon Ham fighters of the JPPL, and he is only 23 years old--three years Matsuzaka's junior. Like Wilson, Darvish has been extremely durable in Japan, pitching 200+ innings in three of four seasons. In 2009he still logged 182 innings, but it was also the only season where he did not record more than 200+ strikeouts. An athletically slender right-hander, Darvish possesses a surplus of pitches, including a fastball that could touch 95-97 MPH.
His pitch catalog, extensively similar to Matsuzaka's, comes with some uncertainty. He was chastised back in a shortened 2009 campaign for what was diagnosed as "shoulder fatigue" which may have been provoked by a propensity to throw the harmful "screwball". If the Yankees are serious in their courting, you can bet Pitching coach Larry Rothschild will not allow such strenuous methods. Unlike Wilson, Darvish's mechanics are a little more unorthodox, as he throws from a three-quarters angle and slightly coils his body, which may potentially be a cause for concern, as the Yankees already have issues with a pitcher who possesses similar mechanics in AJ Burnett. Contractually, the Fighters may not even post Darvish since he and is family are concerned with negotiating system and its "one team only" restrictions. However, if the Yankees open up their wallets and meet the requirements of the negotiating post, you can bet they will complete a contract and the Darvish household will recant their displeasure. Unfortunately for the Yankees, the rights to Darvish may end up being worth more than a hypothetical contract, leaving the Yankees strapped to another big but uncertain investment. Essentially, paying for two free agents and only acquiring one may turn the Yankees attention elsewhere. Aside from the contractual elements, the hesitancy on behalf of the Yankees might in fact be due to the limited talent in Japanese baseball. Not to take anything away from the young righty, but the competition in Japanese baseball compared to the potency of Major League Baseball's is vastly different. The question is whether Darvish's stuff will transfer over to the Majors, or will he spend the first years of his career trying to figure out big league hitters, if not his whole career. Although Darvish has experienced Major League sluggers during the World Baseball Classic, it is not enough to suggest that teams will have a hard time figuring him out during the extensive 162-game season.
Will the Yankees make a big splash and add a top arm to their rotation? I certainly believe so. Will it come via free agency? Unless the Yankees are willing to overpay or astronomical demands decrease, I believe their focus will be set on the trade market. Although Wilson and Darvish are highly coveted and even more talented, the cost seems unbearable, especially after the Yankees already devoted an additional $30 million to their ace's extended deal. I fully expect Brian Cashman to consider dealing for Jurrjens or Chicago's John Danks, pitchers that won't necessarily command immoderately heavy prospect returns. All in all, the lukewarm Hot Stove will not see the heat turned up until the Winter Meetings, and it may not be until after the meetings when pieces begin to fall into place, so don't many impulse signings or negotiations before then.
